NFL Prediction Time
Our long wait is over.The last NFL game I watched without interruption was the Packers heart-annihilating loss against the classless and undeserving Eagles in the second round of the playoffs last year.
As long time readers may recall, I was getting married in Tokyo during last year's super bowl, so I was only able to read about the final score on my wife's cell phone while we tooled around Shibuya on our way to the Fussa-shi hall to sign the marriage papers.
But now we're back. As is tradition, I will try to predict the Packers final record for 2004.
The last two years I foresaw the downfall of the Packers. If I remember correctly, I predicted 9-7 and 8-8. I was grossly wrong both times.
The Packers have continued to surprise me. By the fourth game I usually have a really good feel for the Packer's chances, but a real prediction must come before the season starts.
In the past few years I have been too pessimistic because I based a lot of my opinion on the way they finished the previous year (always a loss), and their off-season moves (always shitty). I also factored in a small decline in Favre's ability, the ineffectiveness of the receivers, and poor pre-season results.
So, I have tried to learn from my mistakes this year.
I say 10-6.
They are basically the same team as last year, but they are a little worse on defense. Also, the new rules for covering receivers will hurt the Packers more than they help them.
The division is going to be better this year. The Lions will suck a little less and may actually win a game on the road. The Bears may actually have a competent coach this year. They are tired of losing to the Packers, and eventually they will beat the Packers again.
The Packers play at Philly, at Carolina, and at Indy. 3 losses right there.
They also play second tier teams on the road, Minn and Washington. I say they split there.
Two more losses will put them at 10-6, and those two losses could come from a lot of places, ...at Detroit, at Chicago, Tennessee at home, Giants at home (in an upset), Cowboys at home, Jacksonville at home, or even at Houston.
If they can run the table on those teams, they could reach 12-4, but I would consider that a huge longshot.
10-6 seems safe to me, if anything, they could go 11-5, and I would consider that a very good season, even though it may not get them in the playoffs.
At 10-6 I don't think they will make it, which will force us to talk about Sherman's moves as GM. But there will be time for that later.
More predictions ...Saints will again be the Ain'ts. New England will fall a bit, but still make the playoffs. Dolphins are sushi, again.
Dallas can survive with Vinnie, but will not make the playoffs. Indy to the super bowl by beating KC at home for the AFC championship. Philly to the super bowl beating Carolina.
Surprise team, Jacksonville.
Biggest disappointment, everyone in the NFC north. One and done for the Vikes in the playoffs.
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