Prediction Time – Packers ‘06
Ok (sigh), ...here we go ...My old system for predicting Packer wins is out the window. While reasonably effective, it was based on the fact that it was always pretty easy to tell how good the Packers would be in any given year.
Stability was the key. The Packers always had the same strengths, same weaknesses, same tendencies. The only variables would be how good the other teams were and how healthy the Packers would be.
But this season, no one has any idea how bad this team really is.
Most people suspect the Packers will be one of the bottom 4 or 5 teams in the league, and I agree with that.
But I think they might actually win more games than last year.
Ok, ok, just hear me out, ...
If the Packers are one of the bottom 5 teams in the NFL, their saving grace is the fact that they likely play the other bottom 4 teams in league this year.
So, my initial thoughts are that they will be a worse team than last year because:
They are worse on the offensive line.
Too inexperienced in the secondary and linebacking corps.
They lost their defensive leader (Jim Bates) who was a very special coach that won't be easily replaced.
Favre looks worse than he did last year.
And of course, this guy is worth 2 losses just by his presence.
Despite these obvious deficiencies, I think they could have as many as 5 wins.
HereÂ?s my win/loss guesses. W= probable win, L=definite loss, O=coin toss.
L da Bears
W Saints
O @ Lions
L @ Eagles
O Rams
bye
L @ Dolphins
O Cardinals
O @Bills
L @Vikings
L Patriots
L @Seahawks
W Jets
W @49ers
W Lions
O Vikings
O @Bears
So, 6 easy losses, 4 possible victories, and 6 questions.
Out of the 6 questions, 5 are probable losses: @Lions, Rams, Cardinals, Vikings, Bears.
That leaves the Buffalo Bills. The Bills will be coming off of their Bye week, having just lost to New England and looking forward to Indianapolis the following week, they could be looking past the Packers. If the Packers are going to step up and surprise somebody, it will be the Bills.
That's 5-11. That's my baseline.
In former years, I would look at the team and decide if it was more likely that they would be stronger than anticipated or weaker. I always went with "stronger" and added 1 or 2 wins to my baseline.
This year I'm tempted to take 1 win away from them because of their many, many deficiencies, but I can't.
5-11 is my pick.
I think they will get totally blown out in a lot games, and that most games won't be as close as last year. Buy I think they will gel at some point and put together a few games where they have a chance to win, but I just don't see them having the talent to pull it off.
I wouldn't be shocked if they won 6 games or 2 games this year. Either is a very real possibility.
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