A Prediction for the Packers Season
I nailed my prediction last year. I predicted 10-6, and here are the offical results if you don't believe me.I come to my predictions by first counting up all the games I feel are either safe wins or safe losses. Then I look at the games that I can't decide on. Some of these games I put into a "questionable" category, others I put into a "really questionable" category.
I then make my best guesses at these games and use that as my "baseline" prediction.
From there I go back to the "questionable" and "very questionable" games and look at them as a group, rather than as individual games.
This year, my baseline was a distressing 6-10.
I'm counting as definite losses:
Sept 11 at Detroit
Oct 3 at Carolina
Oct 23 at Minnesota
Nov 13 at Atlanta
Nov 21 vs Minnesota
Nov 27 vs Philly
Probable additonal losses:
Nov 6 vs Pittsburgh
Dec 19 at Baltimore
Jan 1 vs Seattle
Additional Possible loss:
Oct 9 New Orleans
Certain Wins:
Sept 18 at Cleveland
Sept 25 at Tampa
Dec 4 at Chicago
Dec 11 vs Detroit
Dec 25 at Chicago
Possible Additional Win:
Oct 20 at Cincinnati
Looking at the non-certain games, we have 4 losses and 1 win. At most, the Packers will go +2 and win two of the games that I have listed as possible losses. That gives them 8 wins. But more than likely they will end up +1 and go 7-9.
But almost everyone is predicting 7-9, so I'm really tempted to say 6-10, figuring that they are as likely to lose against Cincy as they are to win against New Orleans. But I think they could also win against Balitmore.
In fact, the more I think about it, they always play well at the end of the season (if they are healthy, a big "if"). That Baltimore game looks more and more winnable.
However, they have been healthy for two years, it's about time for some injuries.
But I'm going with history here.
Each year I am pessimistic and make a low guess based on that pessimism. Last year I adjusted and went with the more optimisitic number and got it right.
I'm doing that again.
Even though it's a popular number to pick, 7-9 is my prediction.
Furthermore, I will add that they are much much much more likely to go 8-8 than 6-10.
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